Facebook may lose 80% of its users by 2017
Facebook faces a significant drop, warn scientists at Princeton, as well as they can explain, 80% of the users will not be members of Facebook until 2017. As assessed by the research team, this social network is spreading like a contagious disease, and forecast the downward trend has already begun. The researchers of the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics, John and Joshua Kanarelis Spechler, began analyzing the rise and fall of MySpace, to prove that their theory can accurately predict the fall of a social network. Then they analyzed how many times the word Facebook was keyed in searches of Google. The relative longitudinal analysis, with the help of the service Google Trends, shows that the search peaked in December 2012 and then steadily decreases.
According to the researchers ideas, such as diseases, there has been shown to spread between people by adhesive means, before eventually fade and this is exactly why this development has been described successfully by epidemiological statistical models. With this in mind, as they say, The people eventually lose interest in an idea and become immune opposite. In other words, it is a matter of time, as the study, users gain immunity to Facebook, which at the end of 2013 was approximately 1.2 billion users worldwide and on Feb. 4 celebrates the tenth birthday of. In this case, according to the researchers, the case is indicative of MySpace, once large competitor of Facebook, founded in 2003, reached the pinnacle of glory in the 2007 to 2008, 300 million users and essentially died in 2011.
As indicated by the two American engineers, if one study how developed over time the number of searches for the word MySpace in Google, can establish the gradual decline of interest of users and thus to predict the final disappearance. A similar curve seem to delete now and searches for Facebook to Google. The counterargument is that many users enter now on Facebook via smartphones, which has led to a reduction of the specific word searches through Google. On the other, he’s the chief financial Empersman Facebook David recently admitted that during the last quarter observed a decrease in the number of daily users, especially among teenagers. At present, the shares of Facebook are up in the American stock market and investors seem to be worried and personal property of 29 year old founder Mark Zuckerberg’s network is estimated to have reached about 19 billion dollars.
At the scientific level, the mathematical epidemiologist Marisa Aizenmpergk the University of Michigan said that there are other possible scenarios, including an outbreak that can last for a long time or even increasing slowly but steadily for an indefinite period, probably because of the disease rebuilt. In other words, one can stick back on Facebook, even if he temporarily breaks free from it.
By Nicole P.
